32% | Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of easier policy?

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of easier policy?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

32%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

15pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

15pt model spread around 32% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

15pt

25% to 40%

Consensus

32%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+8pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Gemini anchors the lower end at 25%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 40%. Consensus sits at 32%, leaving a 15 point range for review.

Primary review question

Unexpected deterioration in economic indicators or sudden shifts in inflation could lead to increased calls for easier policy.

Shared probability axis

Range 25% to 40%

Consensus 32%

Gemini 25

Claude 28

Grok 35

GPT-4o 40

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Given the unchanged federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent since June and the June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections indicating a year-end 2026 funds rate median of 3.8 percent, there is a significant tendency among FOMC members towards a cautious policy stance. However, with nine out of eighteen participants projecting rates above the current range, dissent in favor of easier policy could arise, especially if economic data starts showing signs of weakness or if inflation slows significantly.

Key uncertainty

Unexpected deterioration in economic indicators or sudden shifts in inflation could lead to increased calls for easier policy.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 32% · 15pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-008

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Current eventDirect policy path

Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of easier policy?

LiveResolves Dec 9, 2026

Current view

32%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

15pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

15pt model spread around 32% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

15pt

25% to 40%

Consensus

32%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+8pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Gemini anchors the lower end at 25%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 40%. Consensus sits at 32%, leaving a 15 point range for review.

Primary review question

Unexpected deterioration in economic indicators or sudden shifts in inflation could lead to increased calls for easier policy.

Shared probability axis

Range 25% to 40%

Consensus 32%

Gemini 25

Claude 28

Grok 35

GPT-4o 40

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Unexpected deterioration in economic indicators or sudden shifts in inflation could lead to increased calls for easier policy.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 32% · 15pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Federal Reserve FOMC statementsimplementation notesSEPpress conference materialsofficial target rangeBLSBEAEIATreasuryFREDCME FedWatchmajor bank research

Record ID

CRENE-FED-WARSH-POL-008

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Aug 13, 2026