Reasoning
AI tools already contributed to 8-12% of 2025 arXiv submissions per metadata analysis, with Nature and Science reporting 5-7% AI-assisted papers in 2025; adoption rates have doubled yearly since 2023 and institutional mandates at MIT, Stanford and ETH Zurich now require disclosure of LLM use, accelerating diffusion to 15-18% by 2027. Top-10 journals (Nature, Science, Cell, NEJM, Lancet, PRL, PNAS, JACS, Angewandte, Nature Methods) face uniform peer-review pressure and are unlikely to adopt outright bans, making 20% threshold reachable by 2028-2029 under current trends.Key uncertainty
Whether major journals implement stricter authorship or disclosure rules that cap detectable AI co-authorship below 20%.