Reasoning
The current H100 market is characterized by extreme demand outstripping supply, driving prices far above MSRP, with secondary market prices for top-tier configurations reportedly reaching upwards of $40,000-$50,000. As NVIDIA ramps up H100 production and the successor Blackwell architecture (B100/B200) is expected to launch in late 2024/early 2025 with potentially significant performance gains, a substantial price correction for H100s is likely by 2026 as demand shifts and supply catches up, leading to a YoY decline exceeding 40% from peak secondary market valuations.Key uncertainty
The pace and magnitude of AI workload evolution and adoption; if new, highly demanding AI workloads emerge that specifically favor H100's architecture or are not yet fully optimized for Blackwell, it could sustain demand and moderate price declines.