Reasoning
The FTC has already signaled increased scrutiny of Big Tech and AI, evidenced by existing investigations into Microsoft's AI partnerships and their recent guidance on AI and competition. Given the rapid growth and concentration of power within hyperscalers' AI ecosystems, and the FTC's stated focus on emerging technologies, a formal investigation in 2026 is highly probable as the market matures and potential harms become clearer.Key uncertainty
The specific structure and perceived anti-competitive nature of future hyperscaler AI partnerships, which are still evolving, will be a critical determinant of the FTC's decision to formally investigate.