Reasoning
The June 17 SEP median for the year end 2026 rate rose to 3.8 percent from 3.4 percent in March, nine participants project rates above the current 3.50 to 3.75 percent target, and Chair Warsh's post meeting statement erased the prior easing bias, showing the Committee already views inflation risks as balanced to the upside. Historical FOMC practice since 2012 shows that once the median SEP shifts upward, subsequent statements rarely add explicit upside risk language unless incoming data surprises higher. With the funds rate unchanged since June and no further SEP meetings until September, the probability of an explicit upside tilt phrase in any later statement hinges on whether CPI or PCE prints breach 2.5 percent before year end.Key uncertainty
Whether the next two CPI releases exceed 2.5 percent annualized.