Will average hourly earnings growth exceed 4.3% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

The Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance, with the federal funds target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent and a recent removal of a cutting bias, suggests a continued restrictive environment aimed at controlling inflation. While the June 2026 SEP median for the year end 2026 funds rate increased to 3.8 percent, indicating a hawkish lean from some participants, the current rate level already implies a significant drag on wage growth. Given that average hourly earnings growth has been moderating from its post pandemic highs, a sustained level of interest rates at or above the projected year end 2026 level would likely keep wage growth in the vicinity of 4.0 to 4.3% rather than exceeding it significantly, though it remains a close call.