40% | Will Wikipedia implement mandatory AI detection for all new article submissions by 2028?

Back to thesis map Part ofWill AI generated content exceed human generated content on the US internet before 2030?

Current eventSearch, SEO & discovery

Will Wikipedia implement mandatory AI detection for all new article submissions by 2028?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2028

Current view

40%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

58pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

58pt model spread around 40% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

58pt

12% to 70%

Consensus

40%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+30pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 12%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 70%. Consensus sits at 40%, leaving a 58 point range for review.

Primary review question

The pace of technological advancement in AI could surpass the capabilities of current detection tools, potentially leading Wikimedia to reconsider implementing mandatory measures if effectiveness is in doubt.

Shared probability axis

Range 12% to 70%

Consensus 40%

Grok 12

Claude 18

Gemini 60

GPT-4o 70

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

As of July 2026, there has been a significant rise in the use of AI-generated content across various platforms, with estimates indicating that up to 40% of new content produced online could be AI-generated. Recently, legislation aimed at promoting digital literacy and transparency in AI usage has been gaining traction, particularly in Europe and North America. This context suggests a strong push for mechanisms like AI detection tools to maintain content integrity on platforms like Wikipedia by 2028.

Key uncertainty

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 40% · 58pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Record ID

CRENE-AICD-SE07

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 8, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofWill AI generated content exceed human generated content on the US internet before 2030?

Current eventSearch, SEO & discovery

Will Wikipedia implement mandatory AI detection for all new article submissions by 2028?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2028

Current view

40%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

58pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Diverging

The evidence is sharply disputed

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

58pt model spread around 40% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

58pt

12% to 70%

Consensus

40%

4 models

Evidence state

Diverging

Models sharply disagree

Most divergent

GPT-4o

+30pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

Grok anchors the lower end at 12%, while GPT-4o anchors the upper end at 70%. Consensus sits at 40%, leaving a 58 point range for review.

Primary review question

Shared probability axis

Range 12% to 70%

Consensus 40%

Grok 12

Claude 18

Gemini 60

GPT-4o 70

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 40% · 58pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Record ID

CRENE-AICD-SE07

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 8, 2026