29% | Will GPU rental rates at major neoclouds decline more than 35% in 2026?

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventCapex & infrastructure

Will GPU rental rates at major neoclouds decline more than 35% in 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

29%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

13pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

13pt model spread around 29% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

13pt

25% to 38%

Consensus

29%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Grok

+9pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

GPT-4o anchors the lower end at 25%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 38%. Consensus sits at 29%, leaving a 13 point range for review.

Primary review question

Timing of next-gen GPU release cycles and whether demand from inference workloads can absorb the 2.5x compute supply increase expected in 2026.

Shared probability axis

Range 25% to 38%

Consensus 29%

GPT-4o 25

Gemini 25

Claude 28

Grok 38

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Current spot pricing shows H100 8x rentals at $2.10-$2.40/hour on CoreWeave and Lambda, already down 22% from 2024 peaks, but structural supply additions of 180k+ Blackwell GPUs in 2025 plus Meta/OpenAI's 35%+ internal overbuild will likely push utilization below 65% by Q2 2026, creating sustained downward pressure exceeding 35% from current levels.

Key uncertainty

Timing of next-gen GPU release cycles and whether demand from inference workloads can absorb the 2.5x compute supply increase expected in 2026.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 29% · 13pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Neocloud published pricing 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C034-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 2, 2026

Back to thesis map Part ofDoes realized enterprise economic adoption of generative AI materially lag AI infrastructure investment expansion by December 31, 2026?

Current eventCapex & infrastructure

Will GPU rental rates at major neoclouds decline more than 35% in 2026?

LiveResolves Dec 31, 2026

Current view

29%

Current 4 model consensus

Movement

Recent consensus movement

Model disagreement

13pt

Range across the model set

Evidence

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Thesis map

What is carrying or resisting the view?

Start with the map. Select a mechanism or condition to see what supports the thesis, what resists it, and where disagreement deserves review.

What changed

No decision-relevant findings are available yet.

Review record

Weekly freezes, daily history, and the map version preserved with the record.

Why the view is fragile

13pt model spread around 29% consensus. Open the full disagreement instrument only when you need the model-level reasoning.

Model disagreement

Model spread

13pt

25% to 38%

Consensus

29%

4 models

Evidence state

Contested

Material disagreement remains

Most divergent

Grok

+9pt from consensus

Disagreement synthesis

The models share a central case but assign different weight to the evidence.

GPT-4o anchors the lower end at 25%, while Grok anchors the upper end at 38%. Consensus sits at 29%, leaving a 13 point range for review.

Primary review question

Timing of next-gen GPU release cycles and whether demand from inference workloads can absorb the 2.5x compute supply increase expected in 2026.

Shared probability axis

Range 25% to 38%

Consensus 29%

GPT-4o 25

Gemini 25

Claude 28

Grok 38

0255075100

ModelForecastVs consensusDivergenceReasoning signal

Model reasoning

Select a model to inspect

Reasoning

Key uncertainty

Timing of next-gen GPU release cycles and whether demand from inference workloads can absorb the 2.5x compute supply increase expected in 2026.

Deep dive

Full decomposition, component audit, trajectory, and detailed analytical views.

Deep dive

Detailed evidence, audit, and history views.

Open only what you need

Belief trajectoryConsensus 29% · 13pt spread

Belief trajectory0 updates

Belief trajectory

Consensus—

Spread—

Confidence—

Δ Consensus—

Loading belief trajectory…

Resolution & provenance

Resolution sources, record policy, cadence, and permanent record metadata.

Resolution and provenance

How the thesis resolves and how its record is maintained.

Permanent record

Resolution sources

Neocloud published pricing 2026

Record ID

CRENE-AIER-C034-20261231

Record policy

Append only

Freeze cadence

Thursdays

Generated

Jul 2, 2026