Reasoning
The Federal Reserve's continued hawkish stance, with a federal funds target range of 3.50 to 3.75 percent and projections for year end 2026 rates at 3.8 percent, indicates a commitment to restrictive monetary policy. This higher interest rate environment historically correlates with cooling labor markets, making a fall in job openings below 7 million in H2 2026 a plausible outcome. The Fed's shift away from a cutting bias further supports this outlook.Key uncertainty
The pace and magnitude of any potential economic slowdown or recession in the second half of 2026.