S&P 500 close, year-end 2026
What will the S&P 500 Index (SPX) official close be on the final trading day of 2026?
cross-model median
spread ±427
90% interval
width ±2,250
The three supporting readings tell you how much weight to put on p50: confidence reflects cross-model spread relative to scale, the p5—p95 band shows the 90% interval each model collectively places, models shows whether the four agree on shape.
Latest distribution
Driver decomposition
Each driver carries its own cross-model distribution. Drivers explain movement in the anchor distribution; they do not generate it.
Belief trajectory
Cross-model percentile distribution over time. Outer band p5—p95, inner band p25—p75, line p50. Repolled daily at 06:35 server time.
Per-model distributions
Each model forecasts the quintile distribution independently. The Crene aggregate is the median of each percentile across these four models.
Resolution
Resolved value is the official S&P 500 closing index level on the final regular trading session of calendar year 2026, in index points.