Reasoning
Major productivity AI adoption typically follows an S-curve pattern where initial enthusiasm (2023-2024) gives way to either plateau or acceleration phases. Microsoft's Work Trend Index Q1 2024 showed 75% of workers using AI tools, but adoption velocity typically slows after crossing 70% penetration as early adopters saturate. However, feature stalling specifically requires usage rates to decline rather than merely plateau—historical precedent from enterprise software (Slack, Teams) shows adoption rates stabilize around 60-75% active users rather than drop. The key distinction is whether 2026 data shows contraction (which is unusual) versus deceleration (which is expected). Given that Copilot integration deepens across Microsoft's suite and competitive pressure from Google Gemini and OpenAI continues driving feature improvements, an actual usage *drop* rather than plateau is less likely than a slowdown in growth rates.Key uncertainty
Whether corporate budget cycles in 2025 lead to reduced AI tool adoption mandates, which could force measurable 2026 usage declines rather than mere stalling in growth trajectory.