Will the Federal Reserve raise the target range for the federal funds rate at any point during 2026?

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range at any remaining 2026 meeting?

Will the FOMC raise the federal funds target range by 50bp or more cumulatively after June 17, 2026?

Will the FOMC hold rates unchanged at all four remaining 2026 meetings?

Will the FOMC cut rates at any remaining 2026 meeting?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 at 4.00% or higher?

Will the upper bound of the federal funds target range end 2026 below 3.50%?

Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of tighter policy?

Will any 2026 FOMC vote after June include a formal dissent in favor of easier policy?

Will the September 2026 FOMC meeting result in a rate hike?

Will the October 2026 FOMC meeting result in a rate hike?

Will the December 2026 FOMC meeting result in a rate hike?

Will the FOMC make its first post-June rate move in the direction of a hike rather than a cut?

Will the FOMC end 2026 with a more restrictive target range than the one in effect after the June 17 meeting?

Will the September 2026 SEP median imply a year-end 2026 federal funds rate above the June 17 target range?

Will at least 10 SEP participants in September project a year-end 2026 rate above the June 17 target range?

Will the September 2026 SEP still include individual dots in substantially the same format as prior SEPs?

Will Warsh decline to submit an individual dot in the September 2026 SEP?

Will any FOMC statement after June 17 explicitly describe inflation risks as tilted to the upside?

Will any FOMC statement after June 17 restore explicit forward-guidance language about likely future policy moves?

Will Warsh skip or materially shorten a scheduled post-meeting press conference during 2026?

Will the September 2026 SEP show a higher median 2026 year-end funds rate than the June SEP?

Will the December 2026 SEP show a higher median 2026 year-end funds rate than the June SEP?

Will the FOMC statement after any remaining 2026 meeting remove or soften language about labor-market downside risk?

Will Warsh explicitly say in a press conference that policy is not sufficiently restrictive?

Will Warsh explicitly say in a press conference that a rate cut is not the Committee's base case?

Will the Fed minutes from any remaining 2026 meeting report that multiple participants favored a hike?

Will the Fed minutes from any remaining 2026 meeting report that multiple participants favored a cut?

Will headline CPI exceed 4.5% year over year in any month from June through December 2026?

Will core PCE exceed 3.2% year over year in any month from June through December 2026?

Will headline PCE remain at or above 3.5% year over year for three consecutive monthly releases in H2 2026?

Will WTI crude oil close above $95 per barrel for at least 10 consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

Will the U.S. national average gasoline price exceed $4.25 per gallon for four consecutive weeks in H2 2026?

Will the 5-year breakeven inflation rate exceed 3.0% on any trading day in H2 2026?

Will University of Michigan one-year inflation expectations exceed 5.0% in any monthly release in H2 2026?

Will core CPI exceed 3.5% year over year in any month from June through December 2026?

Will supercore services inflation remain above 4.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

Will shelter CPI remain above 4.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

Will core goods CPI print positive year over year for at least three consecutive months in H2 2026?

Will import prices rise by at least 3.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

Will average hourly earnings growth exceed 4.3% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

Will the Employment Cost Index exceed 4.0% year over year in Q3 2026?

Will the New York Fed one-year inflation expectations measure exceed 4.5% in any H2 2026 release?

Will the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker exceed 5.0% in any H2 2026 release?

Will headline CPI fall below 3.5% year over year before December 31, 2026?

Will core PCE fall below 2.7% year over year before December 31, 2026?

Will the unemployment rate stay at or below 4.3% in every monthly release from June through December 2026?

Will nonfarm payroll growth average at least 150,000 over any three-month window in H2 2026?

Will initial jobless claims remain below 250,000 in every weekly release during Q3 2026?

Will real GDP growth exceed 2.0% annualized in either Q2 or Q3 2026?

Will the Sahm Rule trigger at any point during 2026?

Will ISM Manufacturing PMI print above 50 for at least three consecutive months in H2 2026?

Will the unemployment rate exceed 4.6% in any monthly release before year-end 2026?

Will nonfarm payrolls print below 75,000 in any H2 2026 monthly release?

Will job openings in JOLTS fall below 7 million in any H2 2026 release?

Will the labor-force participation rate decline by at least 0.3 percentage points from its June 2026 level by year-end?

Will real disposable personal income decline month over month in at least two H2 2026 releases?

Will retail sales decline month over month in at least two H2 2026 releases?

Will consumer confidence fall to a new 2026 low in H2 2026?

Will Q3 2026 real GDP growth print below 1.0% annualized in the advance estimate?

Will any of Warsh's announced Fed review workstreams publish formal findings or recommendations before December 31, 2026?

Will the Fed announce a formal change to its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy during 2026?

Will the Fed announce a change to its inflation-targeting framework during 2026?

Will the Fed announce a material change to its balance-sheet operating framework during 2026?

Will any FOMC voting member publicly call for changing the primary inflation data source used in policy communication?

Will Warsh publicly defend a less transparent or less forward-guided communication style in official remarks after June 17?

Will the Fed announce changes to the frequency, format, or content of post-meeting press conferences during 2026?

Will the Fed announce changes to the SEP publication process during 2026?

Will the Fed announce changes to the dot plot during 2026?

Will Warsh publicly criticize the dot plot or SEP process in official remarks during 2026?

Will Jerome Powell cast a dissenting vote while remaining on the Board during 2026?

Will any Fed Governor publicly criticize Warsh's communications approach during 2026?

Will fed funds futures price at least 25bp of cumulative 2026 hikes for 10 consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

Will the 2-year Treasury yield close above 4.50% on any trading day in H2 2026?

Will the 10-year Treasury yield close above 5.00% on any trading day in H2 2026?

Will the 2s10s Treasury curve invert by at least 50bp at any point in H2 2026?

Will the S&P 500 decline at least 10% peak-to-trough during H2 2026?

Will high-yield option-adjusted spreads exceed 450bp for five consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

Will the MOVE index close above 130 for five consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

Will the 30-year fixed mortgage rate exceed 7.5% for four consecutive weeks in H2 2026?

Will financial conditions tighten by at least 50bp in a major U.S. financial conditions index during H2 2026?

Will the dollar index close above 102 for at least 20 consecutive trading days in H2 2026?

Will gold close above $4,800 per ounce on any trading day in H2 2026?

Will the Nasdaq 100 decline at least 12% peak-to-trough during H2 2026?

Will bank credit growth slow to below 2.0% year over year in any H2 2026 release?

Will commercial real estate loan delinquencies reach a new 2026 high in H2 2026?

Will at least one of Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, or Bank of America publish a base case calling for a 2026 Fed hike by September 30, 2026?

Will a major economist survey show the median respondent expecting a 2026 Fed hike at any point in H2 2026?

Will at least five major banks publish year-end 2026 Fed rate forecasts above the June 17 target range by October 31, 2026?

Will any FOMC voting member publicly warn that inflation expectations risk becoming de-anchored during H2 2026?

Will President Trump publicly criticize Warsh or the Federal Reserve over rate policy after June 17, 2026?

Will a major financial news outlet describe the Fed's 2026 stance as 'hawkish' or 'higher for longer' in a headline after June 17?

Will a major financial news outlet describe Warsh as attempting a 'regime change' at the Fed during 2026?

Will a major sell-side research note compare Warsh's policy style to Alan Greenspan's during 2026?

Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed hikes in 2026 for 10 consecutive days?

Will prediction markets assign at least 40% probability to one or more Fed cuts in 2026 for 10 consecutive days after June 17?

Will the dominant market narrative shift back toward cuts before the September FOMC meeting?

Will the dominant market narrative remain hold-or-hike through the September FOMC meeting?

Will at least one former Fed Chair or former Fed Vice Chair publicly criticize Warsh's communication strategy during 2026?

Will at least one former Fed Chair or former Fed Vice Chair publicly defend Warsh's communication strategy during 2026?