Myanmar's economy faces continued uncertainty as polls closed on the first day of a widely criticized election. The military government's attempt to legitimize its rule through this process is occurring against a backdrop of civil war and international condemnation, factors that are significantly impacting foreign investment and trade.

The election, conducted in phases over three days, saw potentially half the country unable to vote due to ongoing conflict. This instability has already led to a sharp decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) since the 2021 coup. Preliminary estimates suggest a further contraction of Myanmar's GDP is likely in the coming fiscal year, following a double-digit percentage decline in the immediate aftermath of the military takeover. The World Bank has repeatedly warned of the severe economic consequences of the political turmoil, projecting continued poverty and reduced living standards.

The business climate is further strained by new laws carrying severe punishments, including the death penalty, for those disrupting or opposing the polls. This has created a chilling effect on both domestic and international business activity. Many foreign companies have already withdrawn or scaled back operations, citing ethical concerns and the inability to operate effectively under the current regime. Sectors such as garment manufacturing, a key export industry, have been particularly affected by labor shortages and supply chain disruptions.

Myanmar's economy was previously experiencing growth, driven by reforms and increasing integration into regional trade networks. However, the coup reversed these gains, leading to capital flight and a collapse in investor confidence. The junta's reliance on China for political and economic support raises concerns about increasing dependence and potential long-term implications for Myanmar's economic sovereignty.

Looking ahead, the prospects for economic recovery remain bleak unless there is a significant shift towards political stability and a return to democratic governance. The ongoing civil war, coupled with international sanctions and a lack of investor confidence, will continue to hinder economic development. The legitimacy of the election is widely questioned, and its outcome is unlikely to resolve the underlying political and economic challenges facing Myanmar.