Russian losses in the war with Ukraine have increased at an accelerated rate over the past 10 months, according to a BBC analysis, coinciding with intensified peace efforts pushed by the U.S. government. The analysis, conducted by BBC News Russian in collaboration with independent outlet Mediazona and a team of volunteers, indicates a surge in casualties compared to earlier periods of the full-scale invasion that began in February 2022.

The BBC's methodology involves compiling a list of named individuals whose deaths are confirmed through official reports, newspapers, social media, and visual confirmations like memorials and graves. As of the latest count, the team has verified the names of nearly 160,000 individuals killed fighting on the Russian side. Olga Ivshina of BBC News Russian noted that the increase in obituaries published in Russian sources, specifically 40 more compared to the previous year, occurred alongside heightened diplomatic activity from the U.S. in 2025.

While the confirmed number is substantial, experts believe the actual death toll is significantly higher. The BBC acknowledges that their analysis, which relies on observable data like cemetery expansions and memorial construction, likely represents a conservative estimate. Military experts consulted by the BBC suggest the true figure could be considerably larger due to underreporting and the challenges of verifying information in an active conflict zone.

The rise in Russian casualties comes as the U.S. administration, reportedly under President Donald Trump, has been actively pursuing a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. The correlation between increased losses and intensified peace efforts raises questions about the potential motivations and leverage involved in the negotiation process. The U.S. push for a resolution could be influenced by various factors, including domestic political considerations, economic pressures, and a desire to de-escalate the conflict's broader geopolitical implications.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has presented numerous challenges for accurate information gathering and dissemination. The use of open-source intelligence (OSINT) techniques, such as those employed by the BBC and its partners, has become increasingly vital in tracking casualties and documenting the human cost of the war. However, the reliance on publicly available data also introduces limitations, as access to information can be restricted, and the potential for disinformation campaigns remains a constant concern. The situation remains fluid, and future developments in the conflict and peace negotiations will likely impact the rate of casualties and the overall trajectory of the war.