Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates regarding the future of Yemen have escalated, fueled by the potential declaration of an independent southern Yemeni state. The dispute, according to diplomatic sources, has led Saudi Arabia to express concerns that the UAE's actions are a threat to its security.
The core of the disagreement lies in the UAE's support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist movement seeking independence for southern Yemen. Saudi Arabia, while also involved in the Yemeni conflict against the Houthi rebels, prioritizes the unity of Yemen under the internationally recognized government. The divergent approaches risk igniting a new civil war within southern Yemen, potentially destabilizing the broader region, including Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have previously supported opposing factions.
Yemen has been embroiled in a civil war since 2014, when the Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, seized control of the capital, Sanaa, prompting a Saudi-led coalition to intervene in 2015 in support of the Yemeni government. The conflict has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with millions facing starvation and displacement. The UAE, initially a key partner in the Saudi-led coalition, has since reduced its military presence in Yemen but continues to wield influence through its support for the STC.
The prospect of a divided Yemen raises concerns about regional stability and the potential for increased Iranian influence. A weakened or fragmented Yemen could provide opportunities for extremist groups, such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, to expand their operations. Furthermore, control of strategic ports along the Red Sea is at stake, impacting international shipping lanes and trade routes.
The current situation presents a complex challenge for international diplomacy. Efforts to mediate between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as between the Yemeni government and the STC, are ongoing. The United Nations has repeatedly called for a comprehensive ceasefire and a political solution to the conflict, but progress has been slow. The evolving dynamics between Saudi Arabia and the UAE add another layer of complexity to an already protracted and multifaceted conflict. The immediate future hinges on whether Saudi Arabia and the UAE can find common ground on the future of Yemen, or whether the country will descend further into fragmentation and conflict.
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