Activists, however, caution that the reduced number of fatalities does not necessarily indicate improved conditions for migrants. Helena Maleno, research coordinator for Caminando Fronteras, stated that tighter border controls are forcing migrants to take increasingly dangerous routes.

Much of the decrease in deaths is attributed to stricter border policing, particularly in Mauritania. In 2024, Mauritania signed a 210 million euro migration deal with the European Union, aimed at curbing migration flows. This agreement led to increased surveillance and interception efforts along the Mauritanian coast.

The shift towards more perilous routes highlights a complex interplay between policy decisions and migrant behavior. As traditional pathways become more heavily guarded, individuals seeking entry into Spain are compelled to seek alternative routes, often involving longer distances, less seaworthy vessels, and increased exposure to harsh weather conditions. This phenomenon underscores the limitations of solely focusing on border enforcement as a solution to migration challenges.

The situation also raises ethical questions about the role of technology in border management. AI-powered surveillance systems are increasingly being deployed to monitor coastal areas and detect unauthorized crossings. While these technologies can enhance border security, they also have the potential to push migrants into more dangerous situations, indirectly contributing to fatalities. The use of predictive algorithms to anticipate migration patterns and deploy resources accordingly also raises concerns about bias and discrimination. These algorithms are trained on historical data, which may reflect existing biases in law enforcement practices, leading to disproportionate targeting of certain groups.

The long-term implications of these trends are significant. As climate change and political instability continue to displace populations, the pressure on European borders is likely to intensify. A purely enforcement-based approach is unlikely to be sustainable or effective in the long run. Instead, experts argue for a more comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes of migration, promotes safe and legal pathways for migration, and ensures the protection of human rights. Further developments are expected as the EU Commission reviews its migration policies in light of these evolving challenges.