Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates regarding the future of Yemen have escalated, raising concerns about a potential civil war in the south of the country and broader regional instability. The dispute centers on the possibility of the declaration of an independent southern Yemeni state, a move Saudi Arabia views as a threat to its security.

The disagreement has the potential to exacerbate existing conflicts, including those in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have often supported opposing factions. The two countries, while nominally allies in the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthi rebels in Yemen, have increasingly divergent interests and strategies in the region.

The UAE has been a key backer of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group seeking independence for southern Yemen. The STC, which controls the port city of Aden, has repeatedly clashed with the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which is supported by Saudi Arabia. The photograph of STC supporters waving UAE flags in Aden underscores the close ties between the group and the Emirates.

Saudi Arabia, wary of any moves that could further fragment Yemen and embolden separatist movements within its own borders, views the UAE's support for the STC with growing alarm. The Kingdom has long sought to maintain a unified Yemen as a buffer against Iranian influence and to safeguard its southern border.

The conflict in Yemen, which began in 2014 when the Houthi rebels seized control of the capital, Sanaa, has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The war has drawn in regional powers, turning Yemen into a proxy battleground. The Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015 to restore the government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, but the conflict has since devolved into a stalemate.

The diverging interests of Saudi Arabia and the UAE in Yemen reflect broader shifts in the regional landscape. The two countries, once united in their opposition to the Arab Spring uprisings and their shared concerns about Iranian expansionism, have increasingly pursued their own foreign policy agendas. These differences have manifested in their approaches to conflicts in Libya, Sudan, and now, most acutely, in Yemen.

The current tensions raise the specter of renewed fighting between the STC and forces loyal to the Yemeni government, potentially leading to a civil war within a civil war. The conflict could also draw in other regional actors, further complicating efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the Yemeni crisis. The international community is closely monitoring the situation, urging both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to de-escalate tensions and work towards a political settlement that preserves Yemen's territorial integrity and addresses the legitimate grievances of all parties.