Vox's Future Perfect staff, along with other experts, released their predictions for major global events in 2026, assigning probabilities to each forecast to reflect their confidence levels. The predictions, the seventh annual effort by the group, leaned toward pessimistic outcomes, mirroring the tone of the previous year's events.

The forecasts covered a range of critical issues, including the stability of electoral democracy in the United States, the potential for a U.S. recession, and the risk of military conflict over Taiwan. The team also considered the likelihood of further state-level bans on lab-cultivated meat in the U.S., the possibility of a Category 5 hurricane striking the U.S., and even ventured into cultural predictions, such as whether Beyoncé would release a rock album.

The practice of assigning probabilities to predictions is intended to promote "epistemic honesty," according to Vox, encouraging transparency about the degree of certainty behind each forecast. This approach aims to move beyond simple guesswork and provide readers with a clearer understanding of the rationale behind the predictions.

The predictions come at a time of significant global uncertainty. The potential for economic downturns in major economies, fueled by factors such as inflation and geopolitical instability, remains a major concern for international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Tensions surrounding Taiwan continue to be a flashpoint in U.S.-China relations, with implications for regional stability and global trade. Furthermore, the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, linked to climate change, pose a growing threat to communities worldwide.

The Future Perfect project at Vox focuses on covering topics related to global development, effective altruism, and long-term thinking. By making these annual predictions, the team hopes to contribute to a more informed public discourse about the challenges and opportunities facing the world. The accuracy of their past predictions has varied, but the exercise serves as a valuable tool for exploring potential future scenarios and prompting critical analysis.