Vox's Future Perfect staff, along with other experts, released their predictions for major global events in 2026, marking the seventh consecutive year of such forecasts. The predictions, published January 1, 2026, carry what staff described as "grim overtones," addressing critical issues ranging from the stability of U.S. democracy to potential economic recession and international conflicts.
The forecasts included assessments of the likelihood of various events, such as whether the U.S. would remain an electoral democracy, the chances of a U.S. recession, the possibility of war in Taiwan, the expansion of state bans on lab-cultivated meat, and the potential for a Category 5 hurricane to strike the U.S. The staff also weighed in on less critical, though culturally significant, events such as whether the musician Beyoncé would release a rock album.
According to Vox, the predictions are not based on "random guessing," but are instead assigned probabilities to reflect the confidence level in each forecast. This approach aims to exemplify "epistemic honesty," providing readers with a clear understanding of the uncertainty inherent in predicting future events. The practice of forecasting by news organizations and think tanks has become increasingly common as a means of informing public discourse on complex global issues.
The Future Perfect section of Vox typically focuses on in-depth reporting and analysis of potential future scenarios, often with a focus on solutions-oriented journalism. Their annual predictions provide a consolidated outlook on a range of interconnected challenges facing the world. The inclusion of diverse topics, from political stability to technological advancements and cultural trends, reflects the complex interplay of factors shaping the future.
The predictions are intended to inform public understanding and encourage proactive engagement with potential future challenges. The staff indicated that the goal is to present forecasts with transparency regarding their level of certainty, acknowledging the inherent limitations of predicting future events.
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