On Friday, the STC declared that a "war" had begun, accusing Saudi-backed ground forces of launching an attack in conjunction with Saudi air force strikes. This marked an unprecedented direct confrontation between the two Gulf states, threatening to further partition the already war-torn nation.
Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE intervened in Yemen on behalf of the internationally recognized government, led by President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels who seized control of much of northern Yemen in 2014. However, their diverging interests and strategies have become increasingly apparent in recent years. The UAE has primarily supported the STC, a group seeking autonomy for southern Yemen, while Saudi Arabia has remained focused on restoring Hadi's government and countering Houthi influence.
Yemen's civil war, which began in 2014, has plunged the country into a humanitarian crisis, leaving millions on the brink of starvation. The conflict has also drawn in regional and international powers, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions. The United Nations estimates that hundreds of thousands of people have died as a result of the war, both directly from fighting and indirectly from disease and starvation.
The current escalation highlights the complex dynamics at play in Yemen and the challenges facing international efforts to mediate a peaceful resolution. The potential for a separate southern state raises questions about the future of Yemen's territorial integrity and the broader implications for regional stability. The evolving relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, once considered a cornerstone of Gulf security, adds another layer of uncertainty to the conflict.
The situation remains fluid, with ongoing clashes reported in several areas of southern Yemen. International observers are calling for de-escalation and a renewed commitment to dialogue to prevent further bloodshed and address the underlying political grievances that fuel the conflict. The future of Yemen hangs in the balance as these events unfold.
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Vox's Future Perfect team has released its annual predictions for the upcoming year, 2026, focusing on significant global events. The forecasts, ranging from geopolitical stability and economic prospects to cultural trends, include probability assessments to reflect the team's confidence and promote transparency. The accuracy of these predictions will be evaluated at the end of 2026.
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