Vox's Future Perfect staff, along with other experts, released their predictions for major global events in 2026, assigning probabilities to each forecast to reflect their confidence levels. The predictions, the seventh annual effort by the group, leaned towards a pessimistic outlook, considering factors such as the stability of U.S. electoral democracy and the potential for a U.S. recession.
The forecasts also addressed the possibility of international conflicts, including a potential war in Taiwan, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions in the region. Concerns extended to environmental issues, with predictions about the likelihood of a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in the United States, highlighting the increasing threat of extreme weather events linked to climate change. Domestically, the group also looked at the likelihood of further state bans on lab-cultivated meat, a topic of growing debate in the food industry and among consumers.
According to Vox, the purpose of these predictions is to exemplify "epistemic honesty" by providing transparency about the uncertainties surrounding future events. The probabilities assigned to each prediction are intended to give readers a sense of the forecasters' confidence in their assessments. The Future Perfect project aims to provide clarity on complex global issues.
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