International editor Jeremy Bowen observes that authoritarian regimes tend to collapse in two phases: a gradual decline followed by a sudden fall, but he believes Iran has not yet reached the latter stage. Recent unrest in Iran, while significant, suggests the regime is still in a period of gradual decline, according to Bowen.
The latest wave of protests adds to the existing pressures on the Iranian government, which has faced military setbacks from the U.S. and Israel in recent years. More significantly, international sanctions have had a detrimental impact on the Iranian economy, exacerbating the struggles of ordinary Iranians. In September, the UK, Germany, and France reimposed all UN sanctions that had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, further isolating Iran economically.
Iran's economic woes are reflected in soaring food price inflation, which exceeded 70% in 2025, and the record low value of the Iranian rial in December. These economic pressures have fueled public discontent and contributed to the recent protests.
Bowen draws a parallel to Ernest Hemingway's observation about going broke, "gradually then suddenly," to illustrate the potential trajectory of authoritarian regimes. While the protesters in Iran and their supporters abroad hope that the Islamic regime is on the verge of collapse, Bowen suggests that the evidence indicates that it is still in the gradual phase of decline.
The 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international sanctions. However, the U.S. withdrew from the agreement in 2018 under the Trump administration, reimposing sanctions on Iran. This move has significantly weakened the Iranian economy and contributed to the current unrest.
The situation in Iran remains volatile, and the future of the Islamic regime is uncertain. While the regime faces significant challenges, it has also demonstrated resilience in the past. Whether Iran will transition from gradual decline to a sudden collapse remains to be seen.
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