International editor Jeremy Bowen observes that authoritarian regimes tend to collapse in a manner akin to Ernest Hemingway's description of bankruptcy: gradually, then suddenly, noting that while Iran is facing significant internal and external pressures, it has not yet reached the point of sudden collapse. The recent weeks of unrest represent a significant crisis for the Iranian regime, fueled by long-standing anger and frustration among the Iranian populace.

Bowen points out that the current unrest is exacerbated by military setbacks inflicted upon Iran by the United States and Israel over the past two years. More significantly, the impact of sanctions has severely affected Iranians struggling with the rising cost of living. The reimposition of all UN sanctions, previously lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal, by the UK, Germany, and France in September, has further strained the Iranian economy. Food price inflation exceeded 70% in 2025, and the Iranian currency, the rial, reached a record low in December.

The 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was an agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States—plus Germany) and the European Union. It aimed to limit Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. However, the United States unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 under the Trump administration, reimposing sanctions on Iran.

Despite the immense pressure on the Iranian regime, Bowen suggests that the situation has not yet reached a tipping point. The protests, while significant, have not yet demonstrated the widespread and sustained momentum needed to destabilize the government. The Iranian government has responded to the protests with force, as evidenced by videos depicting violent crackdowns. The regime's ability to suppress dissent and maintain control over key institutions remains a critical factor in its survival.

The future of Iran's political landscape remains uncertain. While the regime faces considerable challenges, its resilience and the complex interplay of internal and external factors will determine whether it continues on a path of gradual decline or experiences a more sudden and dramatic collapse. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely, with varying perspectives on how to best address the challenges posed by Iran's domestic policies and regional activities.