The Yemeni government, backed by Saudi Arabia, has consolidated control over southern territories previously held by the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), raising concerns about a potential escalation of conflict with the Houthi rebels who control the capital Sanaa and much of the country's northwest. The government's recent gains against the STC, after an ongoing Saudi-backed campaign, have shifted the balance of power and could signal a renewed focus on confronting the Houthis, who have been a dominant force in Yemen since 2014.
For years, the Yemeni government has struggled to exert authority even in areas nominally under its control, hampered by internal divisions and the strength of the Houthi movement. Analysts suggest the government's inability to present a united front against the Houthis has contributed to the rebels' sustained control over key regions. The Houthis, supported by Iran, have capitalized on the fragmentation of their opposition to maintain their grip on Sanaa and surrounding areas.
The potential for renewed conflict comes after a period in which the Houthis have largely observed developments from the sidelines, focusing on consolidating their control in the north. The group's success has been attributed to the divisions among its adversaries. However, with the government now appearing stronger in the south, the Houthis may face a more unified and determined opponent.
The Saudi-led coalition's support for the Yemeni government has been crucial in its efforts to regain territory from the STC. This support, however, has also drawn criticism from international organizations concerned about the humanitarian impact of the conflict. The conflict has created a complex web of alliances and rivalries, further complicating efforts to achieve a lasting peace.
The Yemeni government has not yet officially announced any plans for a military offensive against the Houthis. However, the recent shift in territorial control and the government's strengthened position have fueled speculation about a potential escalation. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Yemen is headed towards renewed conflict or a renewed push for a negotiated settlement.
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