Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates regarding the future of Yemen have escalated, raising concerns about a potential civil war in the south and broader regional instability. The dispute centers on the possibility of the declaration of an independent southern Yemeni state, a move Saudi Arabia views as a threat to its security.
The disagreement has the potential to exacerbate existing conflicts, particularly in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have often supported opposing factions. Yemen's ongoing conflict, rooted in the 2014 takeover of Sanaa by Houthi rebels, has evolved into a complex proxy war, drawing in regional powers and exacerbating a humanitarian crisis.
The UAE has backed the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group seeking independence for southern Yemen. The STC's aspirations clash with the Saudi-backed Yemeni government's aim to maintain a unified Yemen. The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both key members of the coalition fighting the Houthis, presents a significant challenge to resolving the Yemeni conflict.
The conflict in Yemen has deep historical roots, stemming from the division of the country into North and South Yemen until unification in 1990. Southern Yemen has long harbored grievances over perceived marginalization and economic disparities, fueling separatist sentiments. The UAE's support for the STC reflects its strategic interests in controlling key ports and maritime routes in the region.
The current tensions could further complicate international efforts to mediate a peaceful resolution to the Yemeni conflict, which has resulted in widespread displacement, famine, and disease. The United Nations has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and a political settlement, but progress has been hampered by the complex web of alliances and competing interests. The potential for a new civil war in southern Yemen adds another layer of complexity to an already dire situation, with implications for regional security and stability.
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