The Future Perfect team at Vox revisited 25 forecasts made at the beginning of 2025, determining that 19 predictions came true while four did not. The annual exercise, conducted every December 31, assesses the accuracy of predictions made with assigned probabilities, indicating the team's confidence level in each forecast.

The team evaluated predictions based on whether events transpired as expected given their assigned probabilities. A prediction with a greater than 50 percent probability that proved correct, or a prediction with a probability below 50 percent that did not occur, was marked as a correct call. Conversely, predictions with a higher than 50 percent probability that did not materialize, or those with a lower than 50 percent probability that did, were deemed incorrect. Unresolvable forecasts, such as those affected by governmental delays in data release, were excluded from the final tally.

Bryan Walsh, a member of the Future Perfect team, explained the methodology, stating, "Our goal is to hold ourselves accountable for our forecasts and to learn from both our successes and failures." The exercise aims to improve the team's predictive accuracy and understanding of complex global trends.

The specific predictions and their outcomes were not detailed in the initial report, but the team plans to release a comprehensive analysis in the coming weeks. This analysis will provide insights into the factors that influenced the accuracy of their forecasts and the broader implications for understanding future events. The annual review serves as a valuable tool for refining forecasting methodologies and enhancing the team's ability to anticipate future developments across various domains.