Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates regarding the future of Yemen have escalated significantly, raising concerns about a potential civil war in the south of the country and broader regional instability. The dispute centers on the possibility of the declaration of an independent southern Yemeni state, a move Saudi Arabia views as a threat to its security.

The disagreement has the potential to exacerbate existing conflicts, particularly in Sudan and the Horn of Africa, where Saudi Arabia and the UAE have often supported opposing factions. The two countries, while ostensibly allies in the Saudi-led coalition fighting the Houthi rebels in Yemen, have increasingly divergent interests and strategies in the region.

The UAE has been a key backer of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group seeking independence for southern Yemen. The STC, which controls Aden, the country's interim capital, has repeatedly clashed with the internationally recognized Yemeni government, which is supported by Saudi Arabia. The rivalry between the STC and the Yemeni government reflects historical divisions between the north and south of Yemen, which were separate countries until unification in 1990.

Saudi Arabia, wary of any moves that could embolden separatist movements within its own borders, is keen to maintain a unified Yemen under the authority of the current government. The kingdom views the UAE's support for the STC as undermining this goal and potentially destabilizing the entire region.

The conflict in Yemen, which began in 2014 when the Houthi rebels seized control of the capital, Sanaa, has created one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. The war has drawn in regional powers, turning Yemen into a proxy battleground. The Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015 to restore the government of President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi, but the conflict has since devolved into a stalemate.

The UAE, while remaining part of the coalition, has gradually reduced its military presence in Yemen, focusing instead on supporting the STC and securing its interests in the south. This divergence in strategy has fueled the growing tensions with Saudi Arabia. The potential for a civil war within southern Yemen adds another layer of complexity to an already intractable conflict. The spillover effects could further destabilize neighboring countries and intensify existing regional rivalries. The international community is closely monitoring the situation, urging both Saudi Arabia and the UAE to de-escalate tensions and work towards a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Yemen.