Venture capitalist firm True Ventures is betting against the long-term dominance of smartphones, predicting a significant shift in how people use technology within the next five to ten years. True Ventures co-founder Jon Callaghan believes the current smartphone paradigm is nearing its end, a thesis that informs the firm's investment strategy.
True Ventures, managing approximately $6 billion across 12 core seed funds and four select funds, has a history of backing successful consumer brands and enterprise software companies. Their portfolio includes companies like Fitbit, Ring, Peloton, HashiCorp, and Duo Security. Callaghan's prediction isn't just speculation; it's a driving force behind True's investment decisions.
The firm distinguishes itself from other venture capital firms by focusing on a close-knit network of repeat founders rather than prioritizing personal branding through social media and podcasts. This strategy has yielded 63 profitable exits and seven IPOs from a portfolio of around 300 companies over the past two decades, according to Callaghan. Three of True's four recent exits occurred in the fourth quarter of 2025.
While True Ventures hasn't publicly detailed specific technologies poised to replace smartphones, the firm's investment focus likely includes augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and artificial intelligence (AI)-powered wearables. These technologies could offer more immersive and context-aware experiences than current smartphones. The shift could also involve a move towards more decentralized computing, with tasks distributed across various devices and environments.
The potential decline of the smartphone would have a significant impact on the technology industry. Mobile app developers, smartphone manufacturers, and telecommunications companies would need to adapt to new platforms and user interfaces. The shift could also create opportunities for new entrants and disrupt existing market leaders. True Ventures' continued investments will likely provide further insight into the firm's vision for the future of personal technology.
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