The Future Perfect team at Vox revisited 25 forecasts made at the beginning of 2025, determining that 19 predictions came true while four did not. The annual exercise, conducted every December 31st, assesses the accuracy of predictions made with assigned probabilities, reflecting the team's confidence in each forecast.

The team evaluated predictions based on whether events with probabilities higher than 50 percent materialized, or whether events with probabilities lower than 50 percent did not occur. A correct call was marked when a prediction with a greater than 50 percent probability proved out, or when a prediction with a probability below 50 percent did not prove out. Conversely, an incorrect call was noted when a prediction with a greater than 50 percent probability did not prove out, or when a prediction with a lower than 50 percent probability did occur.

According to Bryan Walsh, a member of the Future Perfect team, the purpose of this annual review is to hold themselves accountable for their forecasts and to learn from both their successes and failures. "We aim to provide informed predictions based on available data and analysis," Walsh stated. "This process allows us to refine our forecasting methods and improve our understanding of complex global trends."

Unforeseen circumstances, such as governmental delays in data release, could render some forecasts unresolvable. The team acknowledged that such external factors can impact the accuracy of their predictions, highlighting the inherent challenges in forecasting future events. The team uses this data to refine their forecasting methods for the coming year.