The Future Perfect team at Vox revisited 25 forecasts made at the beginning of 2025, determining that 19 predictions came true while four did not. The annual exercise, conducted every December 31, assesses the accuracy of predictions made with assigned probabilities, indicating the team's confidence level in each forecast.
The team evaluated predictions based on whether outcomes aligned with their assigned probabilities. A prediction with a probability greater than 50 percent that proved correct, or a prediction with a probability below 50 percent that did not occur, was considered a "correct call." Conversely, predictions with a probability above 50 percent that failed to materialize, or those with a probability below 50 percent that did occur, were marked as incorrect. Unresolvable forecasts, due to unforeseen circumstances such as governmental delays in data release, were excluded from the final tally.
Bryan Walsh, a member of the Future Perfect team, explained the methodology in a statement released today. "Our goal is to hold ourselves accountable for our forecasts and to learn from both our successes and failures," Walsh stated. "By assigning probabilities, we aim to quantify our uncertainty and provide a more nuanced view of the future."
The exercise highlights the inherent challenges in forecasting, particularly in a rapidly evolving world shaped by technological advancements and unforeseen global events. The team acknowledged that while some predictions were based on established trends and data analysis, others involved anticipating potential disruptions and paradigm shifts.
The specific predictions and their outcomes were not detailed in the initial announcement, but a full report is expected to be published later this week. This report will likely provide insights into the factors that contributed to the accuracy or inaccuracy of each forecast, offering valuable lessons for future predictions. The Future Perfect team's annual forecasting exercise serves as a reminder of the complexities of predicting the future and the importance of rigorous analysis and transparent evaluation.
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