Copper recorded its largest annual gain since 2009, driven by supply constraints and anticipation of increased demand related to electrification. The metal, crucial for various applications, including renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles, saw a 42% surge on the London Metal Exchange (LME) this year, making it the top performer among the six industrial metals traded on the bourse.
However, prices experienced a slight dip of 1.1% on Wednesday, the final trading day of 2025. The recent price increases were also attributed to traders accelerating copper shipments to the United States in anticipation of potential tariffs. According to Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial Ltd., the expectation of future U.S. import tariffs on refined copper led to over 650,000 tons of metal entering the country, creating supply tightness outside the U.S. She noted that two-thirds of global visible stocks are now held within the U.S.
Former President Trump's plan to revisit tariffs on primary copper in 2026 revived arbitrage trading, which had previously disrupted the market. This situation tightened availability in other regions, even as demand in China, a key buyer, softened. The price spread between different markets narrowed recently amidst a strong December rally on the LME.
The surge in copper prices reflects a broader trend of increasing demand for metals essential in the transition to a green economy. Copper is a vital component in electric vehicle manufacturing, renewable energy systems, and energy storage technologies. The anticipation of increased demand from these sectors has fueled investor interest and contributed to the price rally.
Analysts are closely monitoring the potential impact of U.S. tariffs on the global copper market. The imposition of tariffs could further disrupt supply chains and potentially lead to higher prices for consumers. The situation also highlights the complex interplay between trade policy, geopolitical factors, and commodity markets.
Looking ahead, the copper market is expected to remain volatile as traders and investors react to policy changes and shifts in global demand. The long-term outlook for copper remains positive, driven by the increasing adoption of electric vehicles and renewable energy technologies. However, supply constraints and trade tensions could continue to pose challenges to the market.
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