Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates regarding the future of Yemen have escalated, fueled by the potential declaration of an independent southern Yemeni state. The dispute, according to diplomatic sources, has led Saudi Arabia to express concerns that the UAE's actions are threatening its own security.
The disagreement centers on the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a separatist group backed by the UAE, which seeks independence for southern Yemen. Saudi Arabia, while also involved in the Yemeni conflict against the Houthi rebels, views the STC's separatist ambitions as a threat to Yemen's territorial integrity and, by extension, regional stability. The two countries, while ostensibly allies in the fight against the Houthis, find themselves increasingly at odds over their long-term visions for Yemen.
The conflict in Yemen, ongoing since 2014, has its roots in the Arab Spring uprisings and the subsequent power vacuum that allowed the Houthi movement, a Zaidi Shia group, to seize control of the capital, Sanaa. A Saudi-led coalition, including the UAE, intervened in 2015 to restore the internationally recognized government. However, the war has devolved into a complex multi-sided conflict, exacerbating existing regional rivalries and creating a humanitarian crisis.
The potential for a civil war within southern Yemen is a significant concern, as is the possibility of the conflict spilling over into neighboring countries. Both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been active in the Horn of Africa, including Sudan, where they have at times supported opposing factions. Yemen could become another arena where their competing interests clash, further destabilizing the region.
The current status of the dispute remains unresolved, with diplomatic efforts underway to de-escalate tensions and find a negotiated solution. The future of Yemen hinges on the ability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to reconcile their competing interests and work towards a unified and stable Yemen. The international community, including the United Nations, is closely monitoring the situation and urging all parties to prioritize dialogue and avoid further escalation.
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