Copper recorded its largest annual gain since 2009, driven by supply constraints and anticipation that demand, particularly for electrification, will exceed production. The red metal surged 42% on the London Metal Exchange (LME) this year, making it the top performer among the exchange's six industrial metals.
Prices experienced a slight dip of 1.1% on Wednesday, the final trading day of 2025. Recent gains were also attributed to traders accelerating copper shipments to the U.S. in anticipation of potential tariffs, creating tighter supplies in other regions. According to Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial Ltd., the expectation of future U.S. import tariffs on refined copper led to over 650,000 tons of metal entering the country, tightening availability outside the U.S.
Former President Trump's plan to revisit tariffs on primary copper in 2026 revived arbitrage trading, which had previously disrupted the market. This move tightened availability even as underlying demand in China, a key buyer, softened. The price spread narrowed recently amid a strong December rally on the LME.
The concentration of copper stocks has shifted geographically. Scott-Gray noted that two-thirds of global visible stocks are now held within the U.S.
Copper's performance is closely tied to the global economy and technological advancements. As a key component in electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure, and various electronic devices, copper demand is expected to rise significantly in the coming years. The potential for supply deficits, due to factors like mine disruptions and limited new project development, further supports bullish sentiment in the copper market.
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