Vox's Future Perfect staff, along with other experts, released their predictions for major global events in 2026, assigning probabilities to each forecast to reflect their confidence levels. The predictions, the seventh annual effort by the group, leaned toward pessimistic outcomes, mirroring the anxieties of the past year.
The forecasts addressed a range of critical issues, including the stability of electoral democracy in the United States, the potential for a U.S. recession, and the risk of military conflict over Taiwan. Other predictions focused on specific events, such as the possibility of further state-level bans on lab-cultivated meat in the U.S., the likelihood of a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in the country, and even the potential for a stylistic departure for American singer-songwriter Beyoncé.
The exercise in forecasting is intended to promote "epistemic honesty," according to Vox, by transparently communicating the degree of certainty behind each prediction. This approach aims to provide readers with a nuanced understanding of potential future events, rather than presenting them as certainties.
The annual predictions from Vox's Future Perfect team provide a glimpse into the anxieties and potential challenges facing the world in the coming year. By assigning probabilities to each forecast, the group hopes to encourage a more informed and thoughtful discussion about the future.
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Vox's Future Perfect team has released their annual predictions for the coming year, focusing on major global events and trends. The forecasts, while wide-ranging, lean towards a pessimistic outlook, assessing the likelihood of events like a US recession, geopolitical conflicts, and shifts in cultural trends. The team emphasizes transparency in their predictions by assigning probabilities and promising a year-end review of their accuracy.
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