At the close of 2025, the Future Perfect team at Vox revisited 25 forecasts made at the beginning of the year, finding 19 predictions came to fruition while four did not. The annual exercise, conducted by Bryan Walsh, Dylan Matthews, Marina Bolotnikova, Dylan Scott, Izzie Ramirez, and Kenny Torrella, assessed the accuracy of predictions made across various sectors, including technology, politics, and global affairs.
The team assigned probabilities to each forecast, reflecting their confidence level. A prediction with a greater than 50 percent probability that proved correct, or a prediction with less than 50 percent probability that did not occur, was deemed a "correct call." Conversely, predictions with a higher than 50 percent probability that failed to materialize, or those with a lower than 50 percent probability that did occur, were marked as incorrect.
According to the report, the forecasting process aims to provide insight into potential future trends and developments. This year, unforeseen circumstances, such as governmental delays in data release, occasionally complicated the evaluation process. The team noted that these instances highlighted the inherent challenges in predicting future events, especially when reliant on external factors.
The annual review serves not only as an assessment of predictive accuracy but also as a learning opportunity. By analyzing the factors that contributed to both successful and unsuccessful forecasts, the team aims to refine its methodology and improve future predictions. The complete analysis, detailing each prediction and its outcome, is available on the Vox website.
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