Vox's Future Perfect staff, along with other experts, released their predictions for major global events in 2026, assigning probabilities to each forecast to reflect their confidence levels. The predictions, the seventh annual effort by the group, leaned towards a pessimistic outlook, considering potential scenarios such as the stability of U.S. electoral democracy, the possibility of a U.S. recession, and the risk of conflict in Taiwan.

The forecasts also addressed specific issues like the expansion of state-level bans on lab-cultivated meat within the United States, the potential for a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in the U.S., and even speculative cultural events. Bryan Walsh, a member of the Future Perfect team, noted the effort aims to exemplify "epistemic honesty," emphasizing transparency in their forecasting process.

The practice of assigning probabilities to predictions, while not new, is gaining traction in various fields, from economics to political science, as a way to quantify uncertainty and provide a more nuanced understanding of potential future outcomes. This approach acknowledges that the future is not predetermined and that various factors can influence the likelihood of different events.

The predictions come at a time of increasing global uncertainty, with ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic instability, and the looming threat of climate change. The potential for a recession in the U.S., for example, has been a subject of debate among economists, with varying forecasts about its timing and severity. Similarly, the situation in Taiwan remains a sensitive issue, with implications for regional and global security.

The Vox team's predictions offer a glimpse into potential challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, encouraging readers to consider the range of possible outcomes and their potential implications. While the forecasts are not definitive, they provide a framework for understanding the complex and interconnected forces shaping the world.