Oil prices saw a modest increase Sunday evening as investors assessed the potential impact of the U.S. military raid in Venezuela that led to the capture of Nicolas Maduro. U.S. oil futures rose 0.19% to $57.43 a barrel, while Brent crude climbed 0.28% to $60.92 a barrel, reversing earlier losses.

The price movements reflect initial market reactions to the geopolitical shift, though analysts remain cautious about immediate, significant changes. Despite Venezuela possessing the world's largest proven oil reserves, its production has been hampered by U.S. sanctions, mismanagement under Maduro, and a lack of investment. President Trump stated that Maduro's removal would spur investment and revive Venezuelan oil output. However, experts suggest a substantial recovery could take years.

The near-term impact on the global oil market is expected to be limited. Rob Hummel, senior portfolio manager at Tortoise Capital Management, noted that the physical global oil market remains oversupplied, a factor currently outweighing the Venezuelan situation. OPEC's decision to maintain steady production through the first quarter further reinforces this supply dynamic.

Venezuela's oil industry has been in decline for years, diminishing its influence on global markets. The country's production has fallen significantly from its peak, impacting revenue and overall economic stability. U.S. sanctions have further restricted its ability to attract foreign investment and modernize its infrastructure.

Looking ahead, the long-term effects of Maduro's ouster on the oil market depend on the stability of the new regime and its ability to attract investment. While increased investment could potentially boost Venezuelan oil production, the timeline for such a recovery remains uncertain. The oversupplied global market and OPEC's production policies will likely continue to exert downward pressure on prices in the near term.