Large areas of north-eastern South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique have been inundated for several days with exceptionally heavy rainfall. The deluge, driven by a slow-moving cut-off low pressure system, has triggered a flood warning raised to the highest level, with roads washed away and rain forcing evacuation of Kruger National Park, according to Ishani Mistry and Ollie Lewis.

Some locations in South Africa recorded hundreds of millimeters of rain over the weekend. Graskop in Mpumalanga, for example, saw 113mm of rain in 24 hours, while Phalaborwa recorded about 85mm of rainfall. The rain has continued to fall across the region since the weekend.

The cut-off low pressure system, the meteorological driver behind the extreme weather, remained anchored over the region, repeatedly drawing in moisture and triggering intense downpours. This type of weather pattern is becoming increasingly scrutinized by climate scientists, who are using AI-powered models to better understand its behavior and predict its future frequency and intensity. These models, often employing machine learning algorithms, analyze vast datasets of historical weather patterns to identify correlations and predict future events.

One of the key challenges in predicting extreme weather events like this is the complexity of the climate system. AI models can help to disentangle these complexities by identifying patterns that might be missed by traditional forecasting methods. However, these models are only as good as the data they are trained on, and biases in the data can lead to inaccurate predictions. This highlights the importance of ensuring that climate data is comprehensive, accurate, and representative of diverse geographical regions.

Further heavy rainfall is expected on Friday and over the weekend. Maputo, Mozambique's capital, could expect daily rainfall totals to exceed 200mm by the end of Friday, according to forecasts. The ongoing rainfall raises concerns about potential infrastructure damage, displacement of communities, and disruption to essential services. Emergency response teams are on standby to provide assistance to affected areas. The situation is being closely monitored by both South African and Mozambican authorities, who are coordinating efforts to mitigate the impact of the floods.