Probability of a Fed rate increase in 2026.
The assessed chance of a 2026 Fed rate increase moved from 56% to 52% as new evidence was reviewed. The prior view remains preserved so the team can see what changed.
Keep track of what your team believed, what changed, and why the decision changed.
Crene keeps the original view, new evidence, subsequent decisions, and prior states connected as the thesis evolves.
The assessed chance of a 2026 Fed rate increase moved from 56% to 52% as new evidence was reviewed. The prior view remains preserved so the team can see what changed.
Record what the team believes, the assumptions underneath it, and the decision it affects.
Bring new evidence back against the original view instead of letting the thesis silently drift.
Maintain, revise, or retire the view with the rationale attached.
Know later what the team believed, what changed, and why the decision changed.
A view that can strengthen, weaken, or change as evidence moves.
A governed range for rates, inflation, valuation, demand, or another live driver.
Several internally consistent pathways when one binary view is not enough.
For six weeks, Crene records the starting view, tracks what changes it, and preserves the decision your team ultimately makes.
One thesis. One team. Six weeks.