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AI forecasting benchmark,
verified against real outcomes.
Four frontier models independently forecast macro, earnings, and policy events. Every prediction is Brier scored and resolved against authoritative sources.
0ACTIVE
4MODELS
0CATEGORIES
0Active Forecasts
0Resolving 30d
0Avg Spread
0High Divergence
Methodology
Auditable pipeline, no black boxes
Every forecast follows the same structured process from event creation to verified outcome.
01
Detect
AI scans upcoming macro releases, policy decisions, and earnings dates. Questions structured with binary resolution criteria.
02
Forecast
GPT-4o, Claude, Gemini, and Grok independently predict each event. No model sees another's output.
03
Track
Every prediction timestamped with model reasoning, confidence, and belief trajectories as resolution approaches.
04
Verify
Outcomes verified against BLS, Fed, SEC filings. Every prediction gets a correct/incorrect label and Brier score.
Who this is for
Built for people who need correct answers
Quantitative Researchers
Structured AI belief data as an orthogonal signal. Model disagreement as a feature. Full history for backtesting and calibration analysis.
Macro Analysts
Multi-model consensus on every major economic event. Pre-computed views across CPI, NFP, FOMC, GDP, earnings, and central bank decisions.
Data Teams
Clean, schema-consistent API feed. No scraping, no ambiguous resolution. Every field typed, every outcome verified against authoritative sources.
APIREST + CSV EXPORT
Programmatic access to every forecast
Model reasoning, belief trajectories, resolution outcomes. Public endpoints for exploration. Authenticated for bulk export.
# Public endpoints
curl "https://api-get.crene.com/api/predictions/accuracy/"
curl "https://api-get.crene.com/api/predictions/edges/?min_edge=15"
# Prediction lifecycle
curl "https://api-get.crene.com/api/predictions/lifecycle/{question_id}/"
# Bulk export (authenticated)
curl -H "X-API-Key: crn_..." \
"https://api-get.crene.com/api/export/predictions/?output=csv"Structured intelligence
on what happens next.
Explore AI forecasts across macro, earnings, and policy events. Contact us for institutional API access.