765 events · Updated 11:11 UTC

Probability for the questions
that have no market.

Acquisitions, launches, contract renewals, regulatory bets, the most consequential decisions companies make have no probability layer. Crene gives them one, using multi model AI calibrated against 685 resolved real world outcomes.

GPT · Claude · Gemini · Grok
See the dataSee methodologyAPI docs
CONSENSUS DISTRIBUTION020406080
GPT
Claude
Gemini
Grok
765ACTIVE
4MODELS
13CATEGORIES
What we found

The edge is real but small.

We measured how four frontier AI models forecast real world events. Across 685 resolved outcomes, the consensus Brier score is 0.239 against the 0.25 no skill baseline, with directional accuracy of 58.5%.

The signal is measurable but not investable on its own. That result clarified the product. Most decisions don't have markets. Crene exists to give those decisions a measurable probability.

0.239Brier scorevs 0.25 baseline
58.5%Directional401 of 685 correct
685Resolved eventsVerified against authoritative sources
Calibration

Calibrated, not predictive.

When the consensus says 70%, outcomes resolve close to 70% of the time. When it says 30%, outcomes resolve close to 30%. The probabilities mean what they say, even when the directional edge is small.

Calibration curve
0%25%50%75%100%050100ACTUAL

Forecast probability vs realized rate · 685 resolved

Dataset schema
question_id · category · consensus · confidence · claude_prob · gpt4o_prob · gemini_prob · grok_prob · outcome · resolution_date · brier_score
Updated every 6 hours765 active436 resolving 30d
Listed onNeudataEagle AlphaMonda
Download sample dataset
200 CRENE events · Full schema · 4 model probabilities
Methodology

Measured trust, not raw prediction

Raw LLM probabilities are not reliable. Crene tracks every prediction against real outcomes and corrects bias over time. The result is a probability you can act on.

01
Question
Any forward looking question with a binary outcome. Crene also generates a structured corpus of events spanning macro, rates, crypto, and policy.
02
Forecast
Four frontier models (Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok) forecast independently and in parallel. No model sees another's output. Each forecast carries the model's reasoning and confidence.
03
Resolve
Outcomes resolved against tier-A authoritative sources: government data, central banks, SEC filings, primary financial reporting. Every resolution carries a citation.
04
Calibrate
Resolved outcomes feed back into the calibration corpus. Brier scoring per model, per domain. The longer the system runs, the more trustworthy the probabilities become.
Who this is for

Built for systems that need to act under uncertainty

Corporate Strategy & Investment Committees
M&A targets, competitor launches, regulatory approvals, contract renewals. The decisions that move quarterly numbers and rarely have a market price. Crene returns a calibrated probability that updates as information arrives.
Institutional Researchers
The dataset and methodology behind the probability layer. 540 resolved events across macro, rates, crypto, and policy. Full per model history with Brier scoring. Distributed via alt-data platforms.
AI Agents and Decision Tools
Probabilistic reasoning for autonomous workflows. When an agent needs to estimate the likelihood of an outcome before acting, Crene returns a calibrated probability with model context and outcome tracking.
APIREST + CSV EXPORT

One endpoint. Any question. Calibrated.

POST a question, receive a probability with disagreement and per model breakdown. Currently in private access while we onboard design partners.

# Probability API (private access)
curl -X POST https://api-get.crene.com/probability \
  -H "X-API-Key: crene_..." \
  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
  -d '{"question": "Will competitor X launch product Y before September?"}'

# Response
# {
#   "probability": 0.34,
#   "disagreement": 0.18,
#   "confidence": "medium",
#   "models": { "claude": {...}, "gpt": {...}, "gemini": {...}, "grok": {...} }
# }

Public read endpoints at /api/events/ remain available for the resolved event corpus. Request /probability access at stephen@crene.com.

See what Crene measures

The resolved event corpus that backs the probability API. Every forecast, every outcome, every citation.