Question 1

What is Crene?

Accepted Answer

Crene turns investment theses into living decision records. Investment teams represent a view as a Thesis, Factor, or Scenario, reassess it against evidence and model disagreement, record governed decisions and structural changes, and preserve the version history needed to explain what changed and why. Calibration and resolved data are published separately as the measurement layer.

Question 2

How does AI prediction calibration work at Crene?

Accepted Answer

Calibration applies at the consensus layer, not at the underlying model layer. Crene queries four frontier models in isolation, computes a cross model median consensus, and tracks resolution against a tiered source allowlist. Every resolved event becomes a permanent calibration point. Per tier accuracy, per model Brier scores, and per domain accuracy are computed live and published at https://crene.com/methodology.

Question 3

What is a Brier score?

Accepted Answer

A Brier score is the proper scoring rule for probability forecasts on binary outcomes. It is the mean squared error between the forecast probability and the realized outcome (0 or 1). Lower scores indicate better calibration. The no skill baseline is 0.25 (always predicting 0.5); a perfect forecaster scores 0.0. Crene publishes the consensus Brier score and per model Brier scores across the resolved event corpus.

Question 4

Who is Crene for?

Accepted Answer

Crene serves investment teams that need a governed and repeatable decision process: hedge funds, asset managers, macro PMs, research desks, risk teams, CIO offices, family offices, and thematic investment teams. A team brings a consequential investment view. Crene structures what the view depends on, records reassessment and disagreement, and preserves the decisions and version history needed for later review.

Question 5

What is the difference between an event, a thesis map, a factor map, and a scenario at Crene?

Accepted Answer

Events are base binary outcomes with scalar probabilities. Thesis maps decompose yes or no investment views into assumptions. Factor maps decompose continuous variables into driver distributions. Scenario records map long horizon questions into coherent pathways. Public collection pages distinguish live maps from frozen thesis records and archived scenario records.

Crene turns investment theses into living decision records.

What Crene looks for as the thesis changes.

Bring one thesis. Build a decision record your team can defend later.