A system for organizing uncertainty.
Crene turns strategic questions into inspectable assumption maps. Track what matters, where models disagree, and what evidence would change the view.
From question to assumption map.
Crene turns a strategic uncertainty into a structured object: assumptions, observable components, model disagreement, and update conditions.
Active strategic questions.
Scenario maps track long-horizon uncertainty through structured pathways, assumption families, and observable update conditions.
All scenarios →Empire by Default
Will the United States account for more than 30% of global nominal GDP by 2050?
AI Labor Transition
What determines whether AI expands, reduces, or restructures productive work in the United States by 2030?
India as the Third Growth Pole
Does India become a durable third pole of global growth, capital formation, and technology demand by 2035?
European Rearmament
Can Europe convert threat perception into durable fiscal, industrial, and military capacity by 2030?
Calibration, disclosed in tiers.
Crene separates what has resolved from what is still accruing. The strongest benchmark validates the ensemble, not the product layer.
Track the structure under a thesis.
Binary questions broken into observable components, model consensus, disagreement, and resolution criteria.
All thesis maps →Warsh Fed Rate Path
Whether the Warsh Fed converts its hawkish June pivot into an actual 2026 rate hike. 100 child conditions spanning policy path, Fed communications, inflation, labor resilience, institutional reset, market pricing, and consensus narrative.
AI Economic Realization 2026
Whether realized enterprise AI absorption lags infrastructure investment. Nine weighted settlement indicators across six causal domains, plus 100 supporting children.
AI Content Dominance by 2030
Will AI generated content exceed human generated content on the US internet before 2030? 100 child situations spanning platform dynamics, search and SEO, journalism, video and visual content, academic integrity, authentication infrastructure, economic disruption, legal frameworks, societal trust, and compute infrastructure.
Follow variables as distributions.
Numerical variables decomposed into drivers, percentile distributions, model spread, and update trajectories.
All factor maps →US GDP Directly Attributable to AI Systems, 2030
What percentage of US GDP will be directly attributable to AI systems by 2030?
S&P 500 close, year-end 2026
What will the S&P 500 Index (SPX) official close be on the final trading day of 2026?
US 10Y Treasury Yield, year-end 2026
What will the US 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield be at the last Treasury market close of 2026?
Built for structured judgment, not black box signals.
Crene is designed for teams that need inspectable assumptions, model disagreement, and update conditions before evidence is complete.
License the dataset.
Resolved event archive, four-model breakdowns, calibration history, scenario maps, thesis decompositions, and factor maps.
Talk to usBuild with live endpoints.
Probability endpoints for live and resolved events. JSON responses, rate limited tiers, hashed API keys, and decision tooling support.
API documentationBuilt by Stephen Lee. Seven years in institutional finance at Goldman Sachs and Credit Agricole, now building Crene for institutional data buyers.
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