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Investment thesis tracking

Crene turns investment theses into living decision records.

Track your investment thesis, its assumptions and changing evidence. Keep what your team believed, what changed, and why the decision changed connected.

Review a thesis →Open workspace

An investment thesis can stay live for months. The original memo does not.

Crene keeps the original view, new evidence, subsequent decisions, and prior states connected as the thesis evolves.

01

Start with the view.

Record what the team believes, the assumptions underneath it, and the decision it affects.

02

See what changed.

Bring new evidence back against the original view instead of letting the thesis silently drift.

03

Make the decision.

Maintain, revise, or retire the view with the rationale attached.

04

Keep the history.

Know later what the team believed, what changed, and why the decision changed.

Different questions. One record system.

The representation follows the investment question.

THESIS

Conviction

A view that can strengthen, weaken, or change as evidence moves.

FACTOR

Continuous variable

A governed range for rates, inflation, valuation, demand, or another live driver.

SCENARIO

Coherent futures

Several internally consistent pathways when one binary view is not enough.

Institutional memory

Built for decisions that need to be reconstructed later.

Evidence stays attached.
Prior versions stay preserved.
Human decisions stay explicit.
Private work stays private.
Explore methodology →
Understanding Crene

From the investment view to its evidence.

What is investment thesis tracking?
It means recording an investment view, the assumptions supporting it, and the evidence that could change it. Crene connects those elements to review decisions and preserved history rather than treating the original memo as the final record.
What do model probabilities and disagreement tell me?
They show the models’ assessments of defined questions and how far those assessments differ. They are inputs to research and review, not guaranteed outcomes or instructions to trade.
How are forecasts evaluated?
Resolved binary questions can be evaluated using Brier scores and calibration analysis. These evaluate forecasts against outcomes; they do not by themselves demonstrate trading returns. The Data and Methodology pages describe the measurement record and its limitations.
Who can use a demo workspace?
Private evaluation workspaces are offered to selected individuals by invitation. Do not enter confidential research into a shared sample workspace.
Data and calibration →
Private review

Bring one live thesis.

For six weeks, Crene records the starting view, tracks what changes it, and preserves the decision your team ultimately makes.
One thesis. One team. Six weeks.

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Evaluation workspaces are provided by invitation. A review inquiry does not automatically create a demo account.