1,134 events · Updated 12:26 UTC

Where AI models agree and where they don't.

Track consensus and disagreement across macro, rates, crypto, and policy events. Four frontier models forecast independently. Every outcome verified against authoritative sources.

GPT · Claude · Gemini · Grok
Where AI agrees right nowView all

EARNWill Copart (CPRT) report Q2 FY2026 revenue above $1.3B?

65%

EARNWill Las Vegas Sands Corp. (LVS) report Q1 FY2026 EPS above $0.58?

65%

EARNWill Community Health Systems, Inc. (CYH) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $3.1B?

45%

EARNWill Palo Alto Networks (PANW) report Q2 FY2026 revenue above $2.3B?

65%

EARNWill Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $3.5B?

65%

EARNWill Viatris Inc. (VTRS) report Q1 FY2026 revenue above $3.7B?

55%
0Active Forecasts
0%Avg Spread
0Low Agreement
0.249Brier (251)
Verified Accuracy17,001

predictions resolved and scored

BRIER SCORE0.25Avg across 251 resolved
CRENE RESOLVED251Events verified & Brier scored
DATASET SCHEMA
question_id · category · consensus
spread · confidence · claude_prob
gpt4o_prob · gemini_prob · grok_prob
outcome · resolution_date · brier_score
Updated every 6 hours
1,134 active918 resolving 30d
HIGH
55%
MED
56%
LOW
57%

Accuracy by confidence tier · 17,001 resolved

Calibration curve
0%25%50%75%100%050100ACTUAL
Spread distribution
0-1010-2020-3030-4040-5050+
Average model probability
GPT55%Claude51%Gemini55%Grok57%
Data evaluated byNeudataEagle AlphaMonda
Download sample dataset
200 CRENE events · Full schema · 4 model probabilities
Methodology

Auditable pipeline, no black boxes

Every forecast follows the same structured process from event creation to verified outcome.

01
Detect
AI scans upcoming macro releases, policy decisions, and earnings dates. Questions structured with binary resolution criteria.
02
Forecast
GPT-4o, Claude, Gemini, and Grok independently predict each event. No model sees another's output.
03
Track
Every prediction timestamped with model reasoning, confidence, and belief trajectories as resolution approaches.
04
Verify
Outcomes verified against BLS, Fed, SEC filings. Every prediction gets a correct/incorrect label and Brier score.
Who this is for

Built for people who need correct answers

Quantitative Researchers
Structured AI belief data as an orthogonal signal. Model disagreement as a feature. Full history for backtesting and calibration analysis.
Macro Analysts
Multi-model consensus on every major economic event. Pre-computed views across CPI, NFP, FOMC, GDP, earnings, and central bank decisions.
Data Teams
Clean, schema-consistent API feed. Every field typed, every outcome resolved against authoritative sources where available, with full provenance stored per event.
APIREST + CSV EXPORT

Programmatic access to every forecast

Model reasoning, belief trajectories, resolution outcomes. Public endpoints for exploration. Authenticated for bulk export.

# Public endpoints
curl "https://api-get.crene.com/api/predictions/accuracy/"
curl "https://api-get.crene.com/api/predictions/edges/?min_edge=15"

# Prediction lifecycle
curl "https://api-get.crene.com/api/predictions/lifecycle/{question_id}/"

# Bulk export (authenticated)
curl -H "X-API-Key: crn_..." \
  "https://api-get.crene.com/api/export/predictions/?output=csv"

Continue exploring

Predictions, signals, and API documentation.