The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that trade tensions and a potential downturn in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector pose significant risks to global economic growth. The warning was included in the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook, which described the global economy as "steady" and projected "resilient" growth for the current year.

The IMF's forecast, released prior to former U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European nations opposing his proposed acquisition of Greenland, also emphasized the critical importance of central bank independence for maintaining global economic stability and growth. The economic watchdog projects global growth to reach 3.3% this year, an increase from its previous forecast of 3.1%, before slightly decelerating to 3.2% in 2027.

Speaking to the BBC, IMF chief economist Pierre Olivier Gourinchas described the global economy as exhibiting "quite resilient, quite robust" growth, albeit not at "outsized growth rates." He added that the global economy had largely overcome the trade disruptions of 20.

The IMF's warning arrives amid ongoing concerns about the impact of protectionist trade policies on international commerce and economic cooperation. Trade tensions, often manifested through tariffs and other trade barriers, can disrupt global supply chains, increase costs for businesses and consumers, and ultimately dampen economic growth. The potential for a reversal in the AI boom also presents a risk, as AI has been a significant driver of productivity and innovation in recent years. A slowdown in this sector could have far-reaching consequences for various industries and economies.

The IMF's emphasis on central bank independence reflects a broader concern about political interference in monetary policy. Independent central banks are generally considered essential for maintaining price stability and managing economic cycles effectively. Political pressure on central banks can undermine their credibility and lead to suboptimal policy decisions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook serves as a key benchmark for assessing the health of the global economy and identifying potential risks. Its forecasts and policy recommendations are closely watched by governments, businesses, and investors around the world. The current assessment highlights the need for policymakers to address trade tensions, foster innovation, and safeguard the independence of central banks in order to ensure sustainable and inclusive global growth.