The debate over the existence of an "AI bubble" intensified recently, with tech leaders like Mark Zuckerberg acknowledging signs of instability in the AI market. However, a more nuanced perspective suggests that the AI landscape isn't a single bubble poised to burst, but rather a series of distinct bubbles, each with its own trajectory and potential expiration date.

Fueled by investor enthusiasm and soaring valuations, the AI sector has drawn comparisons to previous tech booms and busts. While OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates expressed concerns about "frothy valuations" and potentially doomed projects, they also maintained a long-term belief in AI's transformative power. This divergence in opinion highlights the complexity of the current AI market.

Instead of viewing AI as a monolithic entity, industry analysts are increasingly segmenting the ecosystem into distinct layers. One such model identifies three layers, each with varying degrees of risk and defensibility. The most vulnerable layer consists of companies that repackage existing AI models, such as OpenAI's API, with user-friendly interfaces and limited added functionality. These "wrapper companies" face intense competition and lack the proprietary technology needed to sustain long-term growth.

The implications of this multi-bubble scenario are significant for investors and businesses alike. A uniform approach to AI investment could lead to misallocation of capital and ultimately, financial losses. Understanding the specific risks and opportunities associated with each layer of the AI ecosystem is crucial for making informed decisions. As the market continues to evolve, a more granular analysis will be essential for navigating the complexities of the AI revolution.