The debate over the existence of an "AI bubble" intensified recently, with tech leaders like Mark Zuckerberg acknowledging signs of instability in the AI market. However, a more nuanced perspective suggests that the AI landscape isn't a single bubble, but rather a series of distinct bubbles, each with its own trajectory and potential for collapse.

Fueled by investor enthusiasm and sky-high valuations, the AI sector has drawn comparisons to previous tech booms and busts. While OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates expressed concerns about "bubble dynamics," they also maintained faith in AI's long-term transformative potential. This divergence highlights the complexity of the situation.

Instead of viewing AI as a monolithic entity, experts propose a layered model. This model consists of three distinct segments, each with varying degrees of risk and defensibility. The most vulnerable layer comprises companies that primarily repackage existing AI technologies, such as OpenAI's API, with user-friendly interfaces and limited added value. These "wrapper companies" face the highest risk of failure due to their low barriers to entry and reliance on underlying technologies controlled by others. As competition intensifies and the novelty of these applications wears off, many are expected to struggle to maintain profitability.

The implications of this multi-bubble scenario are significant for investors and businesses alike. A broad-based retreat from AI investments is unlikely, but a more selective approach is anticipated. Investors will likely focus on companies with strong proprietary technology, defensible market positions, and clear paths to profitability. The "wrapper companies," lacking these advantages, may face increasing difficulty in securing funding and sustaining growth. This could lead to a wave of consolidation or failures in the short to medium term.