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Protests Held in Cities Across the U.S. in Anti-ICE Strike
Protests Held in Cities Across the U.S. in Anti-ICE Strike
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Analysts favourite gauge of the U.S. economys health comes from data. And at the moment, the numbers look OK ish. Hiring is down, but unemployment hasnt spiked, inflation isnt ballooning (as feared) because of tariffs, and consumer spending is holding up remarkably well. So why does reality feel so gloomy? Economist Claudia Sahm is an expert (if not the expert) on the conditions that presage a recession and how policymakers should react as a result. She is the creator of the Sahm Rule, an employment indicator monitored by everyone from central banks to the global financial giants. The Sahm Rule says that a recession is likely when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more, relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous year.Sahms equation has proved invaluable. As JP Morgan observed, it was 100 accurate prior to the pandemic, dating back to 1959. Therein lies the problem: During the pandemic, Sahm believes the tectonic plates of the economy began shifting and havent settled since.Recommended Video The labor market has behaved strangely since the pandemic. President Trumps anti-immigration drive has reduced the number of available workers. Employers have been reluctant to hire for new roles. Unemployment has ticked up but isnt out of control by historical standards. Hiring remains tight, in a low-hire, low-fire environment. Secondly, Americas institutionsthe courts, the central bank, its fede
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