Electric vehicles could become economically competitive in Africa sooner than previously anticipated, potentially by 2040, according to a new analysis. Meanwhile, the United States faces a looming fiscal challenge as its national debt is projected to reach record levels by 2030. In other financial news, the relationship between gold prices and interest rates has become unpredictable, and Big Oil is increasing global exploration outside of the Americas.
A study found that electric vehicles (EVs) could be cheaper to own than gas vehicles in Africa by 2040, driven by the potential of solar off-grid charging. This is a significant shift from previous analyses, which suggested fossil-fuel vehicles would dominate the continent through at least 2050. The economic case for EVs is building as batteries and the vehicles they power continue to get cheaper, potentially impacting electric two-wheelers, cars, larger automobiles, and even minibuses in most African countries (MIT Technology Review).
However, the transition to EVs in Africa faces hurdles, including an unreliable grid, limited charging infrastructure, and a lack of access to affordable financing.
Simultaneously, the U.S. is on track to break fiscal records. The national debt is projected to surge to 120% of GDP by 2030, surpassing the previous record of 106% set after World War II. The U.S. currently has a federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion and a national debt worth 101% of GDP, according to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report. Fiscal watchdogs warn that such high levels of debt could be a "self-inflicted wound," as the U.S. abdicates its responsibility to its citizens, sustainable economic growth, and national security (Fortune).
In the energy sector, Big Oil is increasing global exploration outside of the Americas. Chevron announced its return to Libya on February 11, after a 15-year absence. This move comes as the U.S. shale oil boom matures, prompting major producers to invest in costly global efforts (Fortune).
Financial markets are also experiencing shifts. The price of gold and real interest rates, historically inversely correlated, have become unpredictable. Torsten Slok, Apollo's chief economist, observed that the strong correlation between gold and real rates broke down when the Fed started raising interest rates in 2022. Gold has traditionally served as a safe-haven asset, but its behavior is now less predictable (Fortune).
In other news, researchers are developing models to predict the enantioselectivity of chemical reactions. These models aim to address challenges in asymmetric catalysis, where limited data and complex mechanistic transformations can hinder accurate predictions (Nature News).
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