Tesla's soaring stock price, which recently hit a record high, is fueled in part by investor optimism regarding the company's potential dominance in the nascent driverless taxi market, estimated to be worth trillions of dollars. However, on-the-ground realities suggest Tesla faces significant hurdles in realizing this ambition.

The company's current robotaxi deployment in Austin, Texas, reveals a considerable gap compared to its competitors. Since launching its service in June, Tesla has deployed approximately 30 robotaxis in the city, according to independent tracking. In contrast, Waymo, Alphabet's autonomous driving division, initiated its Austin service in March and currently operates around 200 vehicles. Waymo also offers paid autonomous rides in four other cities, boasting a total fleet exceeding 2,500 vehicles.

While Tesla has been observed testing vehicles without human drivers in Austin, all of its robotaxis carrying paying passengers still require a safety driver. Waymo, on the other hand, operates its passenger-carrying vehicles in Austin entirely without human monitors. This difference highlights a significant technological disparity between the two companies.

The autonomous vehicle market is poised for substantial growth, attracting major players beyond Tesla and Waymo. Established automakers, technology giants, and startups are all vying for a share of this potentially lucrative market. Tesla's success hinges on its ability to rapidly advance its autonomous driving technology and scale its robotaxi operations.

Looking ahead, Tesla faces the challenge of bridging the gap between investor expectations and the current state of its autonomous driving capabilities. While the company's stock price reflects confidence in its future prospects, its performance on the roads will ultimately determine its success in the competitive robotaxi market.