Probability where pricing mechanisms do not exist.
Every event closed against an authoritative source. Calibration is tracked from the resolution forward.
Lower is better. 0.25 is the no-skill baseline for a binary forecast.
Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok. Each model forecasts independently. The disagreement is exposed.
A cluster is an anchor question decomposed into child events. Each child tracks a specific driver such as rates, labor, inflation, credit, growth, or policy. Together, they resolve the anchor.
Fed Cuts 75bp by Year-End 2026
Anchor decomposed into 100 channel-specific child events across rates, labor, inflation, growth, and credit. Tail factor matrix downloadable as CSV.
AI Economic Realization 2026
Whether realized enterprise AI absorption lags infrastructure investment. Nine weighted settlement indicators across six causal domains, plus 100 supporting children.
A factor is a continuous state variable forecast as a percentile distribution. Each factor can be decomposed into drivers that explain movement in the distribution.
S&P 500 close, year-end 2026
Continuous cross-model percentile distribution. Horizon 2026-12-31. Each factor decomposes into driver variables grouped by causal domain.
US 10Y Treasury Yield, year-end 2026
Continuous cross-model percentile distribution. Horizon 2026-12-31. Each factor decomposes into driver variables grouped by causal domain.
- —Not predictions of market prices.
- —Not investment advice.
- —Not better than humans on questions humans already answer well.
License the dataset
Resolved event archive, full per-event 4-model breakdown, calibration history, cluster decompositions. Sold via Neudata, Eagle Alpha, Monda, and direct.
Talk to us →Build with the API
Probability endpoints for live and resolved events. JSON, rate-limited tiers, hashed API keys. For agents, dashboards, and decision tooling.
API documentation →