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Example library

The representation follows the investment question.

Thesis, factor, and scenario records use different structures because the question determines the representation. Each example shows what the view depends on, what changed, where disagreement sits, and what deserves review.

Open the live Warsh record→Review a thesis
Live thesis mapsFactor mapsScenario recordsKnowledge mapArchived records
This week across live maps
Snapshot 20:30 UTC, Sep 22 2026
  • ●Warsh Fed Rate Path. Consensus 60% · +1pp on Inflation pressure · 9 conditions crossed review thresholds.
  • ●US GDP Directly Attributable to AI Systems, 2030. p50 4.85 · -5.25 since last week · band tightened.
  • ●S&P 500 close, year-end 2026. p50 7635.00 · -104.00 since last week · band tightened.
  • ●US 10Y Treasury Yield, year-end 2026. p50 3.62 · -0.33 since last week · band tightened.
01

Live thesis maps

For yes or no investment views. Inspect assumptions, model disagreement, movement, and the evidence that would force a review.

Use when the team is debating a yes or no investment view.
View all thesis maps→
Thesis map100 assumptions

Warsh Fed Rate Path

A live Fed path thesis mapped into assumptions before macro, PM, or risk review.

This weekConsensus 60% · +1pp on Inflation pressure · 9 conditions crossed review thresholds
See latest review→
02

Factor maps

For questions answered by a level, range, or distribution. Review recent p50 movement, uncertainty, model disagreement, and driver review pressure.

Use when the answer is a level, range, or distribution.
View all factor maps→
Factor map

US 10Y Treasury Yield

A factor review of what could move the year end 2026 Treasury yield distribution.

This weekp50 3.62 · -0.33 since last week · band tightened
Connected record system

Explore the public knowledge map.

See how Crene’s public theses, assumptions, factors, scenarios, and resolved questions connect across one shared review system.

Open the knowledge map→
Bring your own investment question

Turn one live investment view into a reviewable decision record.

Crene preserves the starting view, assumptions, evidence, disagreement, and subsequent review states so the record can evolve without erasing what came before.

Review a thesis
See latest review
→
Factor map

S&P 500

A factor review of what could move the year end 2026 S&P 500 distribution.

This weekp50 7635.00 · -104.00 since last week · band tightened
See latest review→
Factor map

US GDP from AI by 2030

A factor review of how much US GDP could be directly attributable to AI systems by 2030.

This weekp50 4.85 · -5.25 since last week · band tightened
See latest review→
03

Scenario records

For questions with multiple coherent futures. Compare pathways, fault lines, shared dependencies, and preserved review records.

Use when the outcome has multiple coherent futures.
View all scenario records→
Scenario record168 pathways

AI Labor Transition

AI Labor Transformation maps the competing pathways through which AI could reshape US work by 2030.

What to inspectpathways · fault lines · shared dependencies · dated review
Open scenario record→
Scenario record38 pathways

Empire by Default

Does American economic primacy persist through 2050 not through deliberate strategy, but through the structural failure of alternatives?

What to inspectpathways · fault lines · shared dependencies · dated review
Open scenario record→
Scenario record31 pathways

European Rearmament

European Rearmament maps whether Europe can convert threat perception into durable fiscal, industrial, and military capacity by 2030.

What to inspectpathways · fault lines · shared dependencies · dated review
Open scenario record→
Scenario record29 pathways

India as the Third Growth Pole

India as the Third Growth Pole maps whether India becomes a durable third pole of global growth, capital formation, and technology demand by 2035.

What to inspectpathways · fault lines · shared dependencies · dated review
Open scenario record→
04

Archived thesis records

Completed thesis decompositions preserved as archived decision records. They no longer participate in the live review set.

Use when you need a completed decision record rather than a live signal.
Archived thesis record109 assumptions

AI Economic Realization

Archived record. Final review Jul 06, 2026.

What to inspectfinal review · archived record · resolution trail
Open archived record→
Archived thesis record100 assumptions

AI Content Dominance

Archived record. Final review Jul 07, 2026.

What to inspectfinal review · archived record · resolution trail
Open archived record→