Cuba faces a looming energy crisis as its primary oil supplier, Venezuela, has been effectively cut off due to pressure from the Trump administration. This development threatens to destabilize the already fragile Cuban economy and potentially spark further social unrest.

The island nation, heavily reliant on imported oil, has historically depended on Venezuela for a significant portion of its energy needs. This arrangement, a product of Cuba's socialist alignment and its role as a counterweight to U.S. influence, allowed Cuba to barter for oil since 1960. However, the U.S. government's actions targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro have disrupted this crucial supply line.

Beyond Venezuela, the Trump administration has also exerted pressure on Mexico and Russia, Cuba's other main oil suppliers, to curtail shipments. The combined effect of these actions has left Cuba with critically low oil reserves, estimated to be less than two months' worth, according to multiple reports.

The immediate consequences are already being felt across the island. Power blackouts are becoming increasingly frequent, disrupting daily life and hindering economic activity. Cuba's economy is contracting, exacerbating existing hardships for its citizens. These economic strains have fueled street protests, despite the government's efforts to suppress dissent through its security apparatus.

The current situation echoes past periods of hardship for Cuba. As one observer noted, "It has been in terrible shape many times before." The collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, for example, triggered a severe economic crisis known as the "Special Period," during which Cuba faced widespread shortages and economic hardship.

It remains to be seen how Cuba will navigate this latest challenge. The government may seek alternative oil suppliers or explore domestic energy sources. However, the current U.S. policy creates significant obstacles to these efforts. The future stability of Cuba hinges on its ability to secure a reliable energy supply in the face of mounting external pressure.