Large areas of north-eastern South Africa and neighbouring Mozambique have been inundated for several days due to exceptionally heavy rainfall. The deluge, driven by a slow-moving cut-off low pressure system, has triggered a flood warning raised to the highest level, with roads washed away and rain forcing evacuation of Kruger National Park.
Some locations in South Africa recorded hundreds of millimeters of rain over the weekend. Graskop in Mpumalanga experienced 113mm of rainfall in 24 hours, while Phalaborwa recorded approximately 85mm. Rain has continued to fall across the region since the weekend, according to Ishani Mistry and Ollie Lewis.
The cut-off low pressure system, anchored over the region, repeatedly drew in moisture, resulting in intense downpours. This weather phenomenon is an example of how atmospheric conditions can combine to produce extreme weather events. Such events are increasingly being studied using AI-powered weather models. These models, which utilize machine learning algorithms to analyze vast datasets of atmospheric information, can predict the intensity and trajectory of weather systems with increasing accuracy.
The implications of these extreme weather events are significant for society. The inundation of roads disrupts transportation and commerce, while the evacuation of Kruger National Park highlights the impact on tourism and wildlife. The potential for daily rainfall totals to exceed 200mm in Maputo, Mozambique's capital, by the end of Friday raises concerns about widespread flooding and displacement.
Further heavy rainfall is expected on Friday and over the weekend, according to weather forecasts. Emergency services are on high alert, and efforts are underway to provide assistance to affected communities. The situation remains dynamic, and ongoing monitoring is crucial to mitigate the impacts of the extreme rainfall.
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