Recent protests, coupled with a government crackdown and the potential for U.S. intervention, have placed Iran's Islamic Republic at a critical juncture, according to analysts. The current trajectory of the Iranian government is unsustainable, marked by economic disintegration and increasing reliance on force to quell dissent, according to Gregory Brew, a historian of modern Iran and senior analyst at Eurasia Group.

Brew stated in a recent analysis that without a significant course correction, the regime faces a slow but inevitable demise. The protests, ongoing since early January 2026, have seen demonstrators express discontent with the government's economic policies and social restrictions. The government's response has been met with international condemnation, with human rights organizations reporting numerous arrests and casualties.

The possibility of regime change has been amplified by the emergence of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the former Shah of Iran, as a potential leader in the event of the government's collapse. Pahlavi has publicly expressed his readiness to assume a leadership role, garnering support from some segments of the Iranian population.

The United States has signaled a willingness to intervene directly, further destabilizing the region. The specifics of potential U.S. intervention remain unclear, but the threat alone has added pressure on the Iranian government.

Historically, authoritarian regimes have sometimes implemented reforms to maintain power. Whether Iran's current leadership will choose this path remains to be seen. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future of the Islamic Republic.